Atlanta Falcons (10-6) @ New York Giants (9-7)
Line: NYG by 3.0
Pointers:
- Falcons have a 1-5 record versus playoff teams
- Atlanta has a terrible pass defense, and was ranked 18th in the regular season facing below average quarterbacks for the most part of the season
- Matt Ryan has not played an outdoor playoff game and in his two previous playoff experiences he has a 3:4 TD:INT ratio and a QB Rating of 71.2
- Giants are limiting opposing running backs to 3.8 YPC since week 13
Pick: I really think Eli Manning is going to have a field day with this Falcons secondary. Matt Ryan may or may not find his groove, and there is now way I can put money down on a maybe. Giants are the way to go, they'll win 28-20.
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) @ Denver Broncos (8-8)
Line: PIT by 9.5
Pointers:
- First and foremost, this line is ridiculous. Pittsburgh failed to cover against KC and Cleveland, how is Denver worse than those teams?!
- Lots of shady line movement, lots of action on Pittsburgh but no line movement
- The Steelers have just one double digit victory on the road this year, and almost lost in Indy while Kerry Collins was playing!
- Steelers are 1-8 ATS as favourites of 9 or more on the road since 2004
- Big Ben is 9-3 ATS in the playoffs and 6-2 ATS as a favourite
Pick: I still think the Steelers win this game but no way in HELL that they cover this spread. Heck, seeing the way this team has played on the road this year, they might even get Tebowed. Take the points to the bank, Steelers win 21-14.
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