Baltimore Ravens (13-4) @ New England Patriots (14-3)
I know this game is up first, but I had to post this last because this one has my special guarantee. There is no way New England is winning by more than a touchdown in this game, and kudos to you if you got the line at -7.5
Line: NE by 7.0
Pointers:
- Baltimore has struggled against the run as of late, giving up 4.4 YPC over the past four games
- Patriots have been worse against the run (5.2 YPC) and Ray Rice should have a field day
- New England is overrated because of their week 19 blowout and the Ravens are underrated because of their struggles with T.J. Yates
- Teams that score 40+ in the playoffs are 3-19 ATS the following week since 1996 (worked in 49ers favour last week)
- Since 2002, teams coming off victories of 21+ in the playoffs are just 4-9 ATS the following week
- Favourites of 7+ in championship games are 3-7 ATS since 1997
- Tom Brady is 15-5 in the playoffs but only 9-11 ATS
Pick: The winner of this game is tough to call but this one is going to be real close to make sure to take the points and pick Baltimore to cover the spread. If the Ravens commit to the run and play smart with the ball, they should have no problem putting up big points against a shitty Patriots defense. No doubt that the Brady Bunch will be able to put up points against Baltimore, but no where close to what they did last week. The win is a toss up in this one, but I'm going with the Patriots to win 31-28.
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