New York Giants (12-7) vs. New England Patriots (15-3)
Line: Patriots by 3.0
Notable Facts:
- Rob Gronkowski is listed as questionable with a high ankle sprain (has not practiced)
- The biggest battle in this game will be the Patriots O-Line vs. Giants D-Line
- Patriots have improved their rushing defense and pass rush as of late (held Ray Rice to 89 rushing yards on 27 carries and have eight sacks in the past two contests)
- Eli Manning could solidify himself as a top three playoff quarterback with a win in this game
Why pick the Giants?
- These two teams are pretty evenly matched up, but the edge goes to the Giants front four, and if you are getting points AND have the edge as the better team, its hard to not pick the Giants
- Giants may feel disrespected as underdogs as they have been the best team in the NFL the past five weeks
- The team that is the better seed in the Superbowl is 1-11-2 against the spread
Why pick the Patriots?
- Tom Brady will be in revenge mode. He has a history with the Giants (2007 Superbowl) and he did not play well last game. Brady is bound to have a HUGE game, and will likely be in "Fuck You" mode like he was against the Broncos
- Majority on Giants side as 65% of bets are on the NFC champions. Despite this, the line has not moved, so the house stands to lose a ton of money if the Giants win.
- Belichick and Brady are 11-2 against the spread versus teams they lost to earlier in the same year. These guys know how to prepare, and it will be tough for the Giants to beat them twice in one season
Other Notable Trends:
- Patriots are 27-15 against the spread versus NFC opponents since 2001
- Tom Brady is 135-43 as a starter (104-70 ATS)
- Tom Brady is 16-5 in the playoffs (9-12 ATS)
- Tom Brady is 9-3 ATS in domes
Pick: I'm going with the Patriots in this one. My head is telling me to pick the Giants, but I always go with my gut, which is saying Brady won't let his team lose again. I think if any team has a chance of winning by a large margin, it will be the Patriots, and if the Giants do win, it will have to be by a field goal. With that potential to go off, I can't confidently pick the Giants, but I do have some confidence in the Patriots. I got them winning 28-24.
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