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Tuesday, 07 February 2012 00:29
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NHL Fantasy Advice Featured

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NHL Fantasy Advice

Who’s Hot

Martin St. Louis –Often regarded as one of the more underrated players in the league, St.Louis has always been in the race for the Art Ross trophy since breaking out for 94 points in the 2003/2004 season. Early this season it looked like the 36-year old Mighty Mite was showing the ill-effects of age, scoring only 22 points in his first 27 games. Since returning from his eye injury suffered in early December, he has scored seven goals and 20 assists in 19 games, capped off with his hat-trick on Saturday. He now has 49 points in 46 games (currently riding a nine-game point streak), which is remarkable considering how poor the Lightning’s powerplay has been this season (27th in the league). Look for Marty to finish the season strong as the Lightning look to sneak into a playoff spot.

Sam Gagner – If you don’t know what Sam Gagner has been up to over the last week, you can’t call yourself a hockey fan. After an explosive eight point night tying Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey’s record, Gagner followed it up with a big three point night on Saturday against the league’s best team. Taking away the first 13 games of the season in which Gagner only had a mere two points, Gagner has registered 31 points in 32 games. Gagner is 16% owned in Yahoo! leagues so unless your league is extremely shallow, give him a look.

Pekka Rinne - While Jaroslav Halak owners might see this and completely flip out, I would appreciate it if you took a look at Pekka Rinne’s gamelog over the past month first. With the 3-1 victory over Halak and the Blues on Saturday, Rinne has now won 11 consecutive starts, and has now won 20 of his past 23. Just like Halak, Rinne has had his fair share of struggles this season but now appears to be completely zoned in.

Who’s Not

Rick Nash –Typically seen as an 80 point forward, the perennially overrated winger is on pace for one of the worst seasons of his career. The Jeff Carter experiment hasn’t panned out as the Blue Jackets hoped it would (but really what intelligent hockey fan thought that a shoot-first center was a good fit for Nash?). Nash is currently on pace for 54 points, which is far lower than even a realistic projection for the big power forward.

Tyler Seguin – The slump was coming sooner or later. Boston was scoring at an outrageous pace and there was simply too much depth on the Bruins for Seguin’s 90+ point pace to be sustainable over a full 82 game season. Seguin has five points in his past 11 games, and while there is still plenty of time for him to gain ground to go point per game, I doubt it will happen. Something to note on Seguin’s season is that the scoring comes in bunches, and usually in blowout victories. In all four of his three-point games this season, Boston has scored six or more goals.

Derek Roy – If there was ever a player that needed a change of scenery this season, it’s Derek Roy. He has been a disappointment for fantasy GMs and Sabres fans alike, as many expected him to bust out for at least 70-75 points after scoring 35 in 35 last season. Roy scored his first goal since January 14 on Saturday, and has three points in his past 15 games. Roy is on pace for 43 points which is just ridiculous for a player with his talent. Look for him to pick up the scoring pace down the stretch (it really wouldn’t be hard, he can only go up), and even more so if he is traded.

Trending Up

Martin Erat – It baffles me that this guy is 28% owned in Yahoo! leagues. Throughout his career Erat has slowly evolved into a consistent 60 point option which is saying quite a bit considering the team he plays for. After his three point performance on Saturday, Erat now has 39 points in 45 games (71 point-pace). While he is light on the peripheral front a la Alex Tanguay, if you’re looking for some help in the points department then Erat is your guy.

Kyle Okposo – After a disappointing start to what many believed to be Okposo’s breakout season, he has really come alive after being reunited with John Tavares. The Islanders’ top line of Moulson-Tavares-Okposo has been one of the best in the NHL over the past couple of months. In his last 29 games, Okposo has scored 10 goals and 12 assists, good for a 62 point pace. At 13% owned in Yahoo! leagues Okposo is a steal in deeper leagues.

Ryan Whitney – It looked like the case was closed on Ryan Whitney for the season as he struggled to stay healthy. In the games that he did play, he looked out of place and invisible on the Oilers’ hot offense to start the season. Since returning from his latest stint on the IR, Whitney has five points in four games. A lot of that offense will probably be attributed to Sam Gagner (and for good reason), but Whitney has been good in his own right, staying active on the offense and making smart plays. Ryan Whitney is 38% owned in Yahoo! leagues.

Ryan Miller – Miller was already starting to show signs of a struggle even before the infamous Lucic hit, but since that incident Miller had looked completely lost. He was constantly getting beaten for soft goals and looked like a shell of the elite goalie that he once was. If you were patient though you’re being rewarded now as Miller has been phenomenal in his last four starts. Saturday was a big statement game for him as he allowed three goals in the first eight shots that he faced. Lindy Ruff showed him a little bit of faith and left him in and Miller rewarded his coach by stopping the next 30 shots that he faced, eventually winning the game 4-3 in the shootout.

Cut Bait

Brandon Dubinsky – Typically a very strong first-half performer, Brandon Dubinsky was a big disappointment for GMs that hoped that he would win the coveted LW position with Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik. Since then, Richards and Gaborik have been split, leading two separate lines, and Dubinsky has been having arguably the worst season of his career. He is now point-less in seven games with only 10 shots during that span, and is on pace for a measly 37 points.

John Carlson – While this young stud has a ton of value in keeper leagues, on a one-year basis it doesn’t look like he’s going to get there just yet. Immediately after replacing Bruce Boudreau, it looked like Dale Hunter would give Carlson a strong look for offense and he responded, registering eight points in a four game point streak. Since then, Carlson has gone ice cold with four points in his last 22 games as Dale Hunter has relied more on Dennis Wideman for offensive strength. Surprisingly Carlson is still 72% owned in Yahoo! leagues.

Nikolai Khabibulin – If it feels like it’s been forever since Nikolai Khabibulin last won a game, it’s because it has been. Khabibulin’s last victory came on December 22, and he has only four wins since November 8th. For some reason, the Bulin wall is still owned in 48% of Yahoo! leagues. If you’re one of them, I suggest you look elsewhere for goaltending help.

Carey Price – Much like Carlson, there is no chance that I would advocate cutting Carey Price loose in a keeper league. As far as keeper value goes, Price is in my top five for goaltenders. However when dealing with one-year leagues often times there isn’t enough time to wait on potential. The Canadiens have now gone 3-5-2 in their last 10 games and sit dead last in the Eastern Conference. With a handful of UFAs in the offseason, the Habs look like they will be sellers at the trade deadline, and that includes one of their best defenders, Hall Gill. The departure of Gill will only make things harder for Carey Price. While I hate to advocate selling low, I would recommend selling him while his name still garners value.

Brandon covers the Studs and Duds on the Dobberhockey forums every Thursday night, and can be found there under the handle “b0ndon”. Follow Brandon on Twitter for fantasy hockey updates at @b0ndon

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